USD/CAD Tests Critical 200-Hour Moving Average on Tariff Surge

The U.S. dollar surged against its Canadian counterpart Wednesday as traders drove USD/CAD to fresh session highs, pushing the pair squarely into a make-or-break confrontation with its falling 200-hour moving average at 1.40858 — the same technical level that triggered a sustained selloff when the pair broke below it on July 8.

The reversal gained serious momentum after President Trump announced 50% tariffs on select Canadian imports late Tuesday, reigniting fears over U.S.-Canada trade relations and delivering a sharp fundamental tailwind to the greenback. Buyers had already reclaimed the 100-hour moving average at 1.4041 during Tuesday's North American session, but the tariff news accelerated the rally and set up today's test of stronger overhead resistance.

Read more USDCAD Tests 200-Hour Moving Average as Tariff Fears Mount →

The bullish case got a second wind Wednesday morning when U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer appeared on CNBC to defend the administration's tariff approach. His remarks gave traders fresh conviction to push USD/CAD back toward the 200-hour moving average after a brief pullback during the European session.

Technically, 1.40858 is the decisive threshold. A sustained break above that level would shift the near-term bias firmly to buyers and open a path toward the 1.41170–1.41488 resistance zone — a swing area that had served as support before breaking down on July 14. Beyond that, bulls would set their sights on the 2026 triple-top near 1.4247, a level that has capped multiple rallies this year.

If the 200-hour moving average holds as resistance, however, the pair remains rangebound between that ceiling and the 100-hour moving average support at 1.4041. A retreat below the 100-hour level would hand momentum back to sellers and frame the recent advance as a corrective bounce rather than a trend reversal. Continue reading at Forexlive.